ทำไมราคาคริปโตจึงลดลง? ราคาบิตคอยน์, XRP, อีเทอร์เนียม และด็อกคอยน์ ร่วงลงเป็นวันที่ 4 ติดต่อกัน

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Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $76,959 on Monday, May 18, 2026, down 1.37% as the world's largest cryptocurrency tested its 50-day exponential moving average for the fourth consecutive losing session. Why is crypto going down? President Trump's Sunday Truth Social post warning Iran the "clock is ticking" on stalled ceasefire talks triggered $580 million in overnight liquidations on Coinglass, $550 million of it from leveraged longs.

Ethereum (ETH) slipped 3.24% to $2,110, XRP dropped 1.22% to $1.39, and Dogecoin (DOGE) fell 2.14% to $0.1067. In this article I break down BTC, ETH, XRP and DOGE technical analysis, the macro catalysts, and where each chart goes next.

Follow me on X for real-time crypto market analysis: @ChmielDk.

Why Crypto Is Falling? Iran Tensions, Bond Yields, and ETF Flow Swings

The crypto sell-off has three converging drivers, none of them isolated to digital assets.

Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday: "For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST." Brent crude futures jumped 1.98% to $111.42 per barrel on Monday and WTI cleared $107, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut since Operation Epic Fury launched in late February.

The president has reportedly called a Tuesday Situation Room meeting to weigh military options. The setup is a near-mirror of the April Strait of Hormuz shock that FinanceMagnates.com covered, with the difference being crypto sat at higher levels then.

The macro backdrop is just as hostile. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.63% on Monday, up from 4.47% last Thursday and far above the 4% level that prevailed before the Iran war began in February. Friday's S&P 500 dropped 1.2% from Thursday's record, its worst single session in over a month. Persistent inflation data has markets repricing Federal Reserve policy hawkishly.

"The macroeconomic backdrop could continue to exacerbate pressure on bitcoin and other non-yield assets," said Joel Kruger, Crypto Strategist at LMAX. Kruger noted that ETF flows continue to swing, with $131 million of net spot Bitcoin ETF inflows on Thursday failing to reverse the impact of heavier outflows on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: 50 EMA Decides the Next 20%

Bitcoin fell 2.5% on Friday and continued lower into Monday, May 18, 2026, hitting an intraday low of $76,690, the weakest print since the start of May. The fourth consecutive down session pushed BTC directly back into the consolidation range drawn from late January, retesting the 50-day exponential moving average that has acted as dynamic support for the past six weeks.

In 15+ years analyzing crypto and CFD markets (full record on my analyst page), I've learned 50 EMAs as dynamic support are decisive: when they fail, the cascade follows. As I wrote in my prior analysis on Bitcoin, the inability to break above the 200 EMA on the most recent rally meant a return to consolidation and renewed bear pressure was the higher-probability path. That scenario is now live.

Why is Bitcoin price going down today? Source: Tradingview.com

The chart shows two outcomes hinging on this level. If the 50 EMA holds, Bitcoin stays range-bound and the four-session slide is a corrective move, the framing Yoonaisil flagged at Exness. If the 50 EMA breaks on a daily close, BTC opens the path to the lower boundary of the channel between $60,000 and $63,000, which coincides with the February-March lows. That is a 20% further decline from current levels.

Not all analyst commentary is bearish. Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness, told FinanceMagnates.com that "Bitcoin's break above the $76k level was a technically significant development," framing the area as the line between corrective pullback and structural breakdown. With BTC now retesting that exact level, the question is no longer academic.

Bitcoin key levels

Level

Type

Notes

$76,500

50 EMA / Dynamic support

Tested in 4 consecutive sessions

$82,000

200 EMA / Resistance

Lastweek's rally failed here

$60,000-$63,000

Range floor

February-Marchlows, -20% from current

Ethereum Mirrors Bitcoin With One Critical Difference

The Ethereum chart traces Bitcoin's structure with one critical difference: ETH never broke out of the consolidation range drawn since late January. The pattern of four consecutive losing sessions repeats, with Ether near $2,110 Monday, roughly the midpoint of a channel whose ceiling sits at $2,400 (March highs, retested in April and May) and whose floor lies just under $1,800 (February 2026 lows).

The level that matters now is the local support I've marked on the chart at approximately $2,100. A daily close below that zone has, in my reading, a high probability of triggering a slide to the channel floor near $1,800, a 16% decline from current levels. As the FinanceMagnates.com analysis from February documented, the $2,000 area has been the psychological pivot for ETH all year.

Why is Ethereum price going down today? Source: Tradingview.com

The mechanics are similar to the BTC 50 EMA test: hold the line, ETH stays range-bound; break it, the lower boundary is the next destination.

Ethereum key levels

Level

Type

Notes

$2,400

Channel ceiling

Marchhighs, retested April and May

$2,100

Local support

Greenlevel on my chart

$1,800

Channel floor

February 2026 low, -16% target

XRP Targets the $1.26-$1.30 Support Cluster

XRP traces the same four-session sell pattern. The token has fallen from near $1.50 on Thursday to an intraday low of $1.37 as Monday's session opened, with the broader structure showing a multi-month consolidation at year-low levels. The range ceiling sits near $1.60 (February-March highs) and the floor near $1.12 (February 2026 lows).

There is also an intermediate support zone at $1.26 to $1.30 that has captured most of XRP's trading activity inside the broader range. Since price has now broken and confirmed the breach of the 50 EMA, my read is XRP is targeting that intermediate zone first, a roughly 10% decline from current levels. If that zone fails, the $1.12 February low becomes the next test.

Why is XRP price going down today? Source: Tradingview.com

The March XRP price analysis on FinanceMagnates.com detailed the same channel structure that is still defining price.

XRP key levels

Level

Type

Notes

$1.60

Range ceiling

February-March highs

$1.26-$1.30

Intermediate support

Most-traded zone, -10% target

$1.12

Range floor

February 2026 low

Dogecoin Tests 50 EMA After Failed Breakout

Dogecoin attempted to escape the four-month volatility channel that coincides with its 2024 lows late last week, briefly pushing toward the December 31 reference area near $0.12. The breakout failed.

The bearish engulfing candle from that attempt has delivered four down days, with Monday the strongest decline of the sequence: DOGE fell more than 4% to test $0.10, stopping precisely at its 50-day exponential moving average.

The lower boundary of this consolidation sits below $0.09, tested repeatedly through February, March, and April. If the 50 EMA does not hold, DOGE targets $0.087, a roughly 16% decline from current levels and the lowest price since 2024. The breakdown setup is the most structurally bearish of the four charts in this analysis.

Why is Dogecoin price going down today? Source: Tradingview.com

Dogecoin key levels

Level

Type

Notes

$0.12

Failed breakout

December31 low, rejected last week

$0.10

50 EMA

Current price stop

$0.087

Range floor

-16% target if 50 EMA fails

Crypto Downside Targets

Asset

Current

My Downside Target

Implied Move

Trigger

My View

Bitcoin

$76,959

$60,000-$63,000

-20%

50 EMA daily close break

High-probabilitycascade if dynamic support fails

Ethereum

$2,110

$1,800

-16%

$2,100 local support break

Mostleveraged to a BTC break, never escaped consolidation

XRP

$1.39

$1.26-$1.30

-10%

50 EMA already confirmed broken

Alreadyin motion toward intermediate zone

Dogecoin

$0.1067

$0.087

-16%

50 EMA at $0.10 fails

Structurallyweakest chart after the failed breakout

FAQ

Why is crypto going down today?

Crypto is selling off because of three converging pressures: President Trump's Sunday "Clock Is Ticking" warning to Iran reignited fears of military escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.63% on hawkish Fed repricing, and Bitcoin ETF flows have swung between heavy outflows earlier in the week and a $131M inflow on Thursday. The combination triggered $580 million in overnight liquidations on Coinglass.

How low can Bitcoin go in this sell-off?

My technical analysis identifies the 50-day exponential moving average near $76,500 as the decisive level. If Bitcoin closes daily below this support, the chart opens a path to the consolidation floor between $60,000 and $63,000, which coincides with the February-March lows. That represents a roughly 20% further decline from Monday's $76,959 print and would mark BTC's lowest level of 2026 outside the February panic.

What is the next support for Ethereum?

Ethereum is testing a local support zone near $2,100, marked on my chart as the median of the consolidation channel that has held since late January. A daily close below $2,100 opens the path to the channel floor near $1,800, the February 2026 low. That move would represent approximately 16% further downside from current levels and the deepest test of the range structure since the channel was established.

Will XRP fall below $1?

XRP is unlikely to break below $1 in this sell-off based on my chart. The token sits at $1.39 with two clear support layers: the intermediate $1.26 to $1.30 zone, where most consolidation trading has occurred, and the February 2026 low at $1.12. The $1.26 area is the more probable near-term target, representing roughly 10% downside. A break below $1.12 would put $1 on the table, but that is not the base case.

Is Dogecoin headed back to its 2024 lows?

Dogecoin is now structurally the weakest of the four charts I track. The failed breakout above $0.12 last week and the bearish engulfing pattern that followed put DOGE on a path toward $0.087, the lower boundary of a four-month consolidation that coincides with the 2024 lows. The 50 EMA at $0.10 is the immediate hinge. A daily close below it confirms the move.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/financemagnates:6ebeb8f73094b:0-why-is-crypto-going-down-bitcoin-xrp-price-ethereum-and-dogecoin-fall-for-4th-straight-session/