0650 GMT - British jobs data confirmed wage growth was easing ahead of the conflict in Iran, says KPMG U.K.'s Yael Selfin. Annual earnings growth excluding bonuses fell to 3.6% in the three months to February, down from 3.8% in January. Slower economic activity will likely mean pay growth eases further over the coming months, and rising energy costs could also squeeze workers' pay, she says. In contrast to the energy shock of 2022, the labor market is in a weaker state, constraining the bargaining power of workers and lowering the likelihood of a potential wage-price spiral, Selfin says. "However, this is likely to remain a key issue for the Bank of England, which is now expected to keep interest rates on hold this year," she says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0645 GMT - The dollar trades steady as investors balance fresh tensions between the U.S. and Iran against hopes for a peace deal ahead of potential talks Tuesday. President Trump said a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place and threatened to attack Iranian infrastructure if the country doesn't make a deal. Iran told regional mediators that it would send a negotiating team to Pakistan on Tuesday for the second round of peace talks with the U.S., The Wall Street Journal reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The report comes after Iran's Foreign Ministry representative, Esmaeil Baqaei, said Monday that there was no plan for further negotiations. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 98.141. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0642 GMT - Indonesia's central bank is widely expected to extend its rate pause on Wednesday as the economic fallout of the war in the Middle East complicates policy steering. All 10 economists' estimates compiled in a WSJ poll see Bank Indonesia keeping its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate steady at 4.75%. At the March meeting, BI Gov. Perry Warjiyo said the central bank's hold reflects efforts to stabilize the rupiah and keep inflation on target as the war jolts global markets, raising the risk of an energy shock. Analysts expect policymakers to keep prioritizing the rupiah and opt against pre-emptive tightening to avoid stifling already weakening growth, unless they see clear danger that inflation is spiraling out of control. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0638 GMT - Sterling rises against the euro and trims losses versus the dollar after data showed an unexpected fall in the U.K. unemployment rate in the three months to February. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% from 5.2% in the previous three-month period. Economists in a WSJ survey expected the rate to remain unchanged. Average earnings growth, excluding bonuses, eased to 3.6% in the quarter but was less than the 3.5% expected. The data were for a period before the Iran war, however. The euro falls 0.1% to an intraday low of 0.8701 pounds after the data, from 0.8713 beforehand. Sterling falls 0.1% to $1.3521, compared to $1.3514 before the data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0637 GMT - Japan's inflation expectations are likely to rise further, supporting the Bank of Japan's gradual rate-hike path, according to BofA securities in a research note. BofA's Japan composite inflation expectations indicator continued its upward trend in the first quarter, they point out. BofA expects higher energy prices to push up both actual inflation and expectations from this summer onward, reinforcing the case for gradual rate increases. There is a strong likelihood that the Bank of Japan will maintain a bias toward further rate increases over the medium term, they say. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0554 GMT - Long-end global bond yields are remaining fairly anchored despite all the uncertainty regarding the outcome of the war in the Middle East, Danske Bank's Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen says in a note. The 10-year German Bund yield has been trading between 2.95% and 3.10%, while the 10-year Treasury yield has been steadily declining for most of April from 4.40% to 4.25%, the senior analyst says. Economic data are taking a back seat, with the focus remaining on the outcome of the war, she says. On Tuesday, in the eurozone Germany's ZEW economic sentiment indicator for April will be awaited, while U.S. data include retail sales for March. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0546 GMT - China's economy remains relatively resilient to the ongoing energy shock, with the risks of energy supply shortages appearing minimal in the near term, Fitch Ratings' China analyst Jeremy Zook says in a note. If the shock proves temporary, Zook expects sustained strength in the export outlook, though it may moderate in the coming year. Domestic demand remains a weak spot, with consumption unlikely to stage a material acceleration soon. Still, China appears to be on the verge of exiting a period of deflation, Fitch says. Higher energy costs should put more upward pressure on PPI and CPI, but will likely squeeze corporate margins, Zook says. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0545 GMT - Dip buyers at the bond and equity markets must feel reassured, Commerzbank's Christoph Rieger says in a note. The situation in the Middle East is far from resolved, but weakness in bonds is an opportunity to add duration, the head of rates and credit research says. "The situation looks set to remain messy for some time, but we prefer adding duration when the 10-year Bund yields offer a 3%-handle," Rieger says. The 10-year Bund yield closed at 2.977% on Monday, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0537 GMT - There are headwinds building against the Australian dollar, says Kristina Clifton, FX strategist at CBA. Markets are pricing too few interest rate increases by the Fed, so interest rate differentials will work against the currency, she says. The U.S. dollar will get a boost as markets increasingly shift focus to U.S. exceptionalism in the area of AI, she adds. Clifton notes that the Australian dollar fell 40% during the U.S. tech boom at the start of the century. Meanwhile, China's near-term growth will be modest and there are big competitive threats around Australia's iron ore exports with more mines opening in other countries, she adds.(james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0532 GMT - Interest-rate hikes by the European Central Bank are not a question of "if" but of "when," DZ Bank's Christian Lenk says in a note. The analyst expects the first hike in June rather than in April. Money markets also expect the ECB to stay on hold on April 30, but price in a first full 25bp increase in July, albeit with a high probability also for June, according to LSEG. DZ Bank expects two ECB rate hikes over the next six months, which would bring the deposit rate to 2.50% by autumn, Lenk says. Money markets price in 46 basis points of ECB rate hikes for 2026, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0524 GMT - The German 10-year Bund yield is "fairly close" to DZ Bank's 12-month forecast of 3.20%, analyst Christian Lenk says in a note. The key drivers of the 10-year Bund yield remains the upwardly revised inflation trajectories, the scenario of at least two rate hikes by the European Central Bank, as well as a slightly higher term premium and Germany's increase debt issuance volume, he says. "At the same time, damping forces come into play: Growth risks in the euro area are increasing noticeably," with the potential for yields to rise appearing to be capped, he says. The 10-year Bund yield closed at 2.977% on Monday, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260421001026:0/