A similar wave of “OG whale” selling in January coincided with a more fragile market that lacked buyer demand, triggering a sharp dip in the BTC price. Current onchain data reflects a much stronger market where BTC supply absorption and reduced selling may allow Bitcoin to hold its place in the $70,000-$72,000 range.

OG Whale BTC supply meets strong absorption

Data from Capriole Investments shows that the Bitcoin “OG whale spent value” moved roughly $271 million on Sunday. That marks the largest surge in activity for this cohort since Jan. 10, when a $280 million outflow spike preceded a 13% correction to $78,700 from $90,000 within two weeks.

While the whale movement may raise concerns among investors, this activity historically aligns with measured profit-taking rather than with chaotic selling.

Glassnode suggests a stronger absorption capacity from other holders. Data shows that the 30-day net position change for long-term holders remained positive at 88,000 BTC on Thursday. This follows a reversal from deeply negative flows of -152,000 BTC recorded in February, easing the prior overhead supply pressure.

The accumulating cohorts also continued to expand their holdings. Cointelegraph reported that the total balance exceeded 4.3 million BTC on Tuesday, rising further to 4.5 million on Thursday.

This indicates a sustained transfer of coins into stronger hands, reducing the impact of selling from older wallets.

Related: Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF trails BlackRock with $30M in first-day inflows

Bitcoin “stress cycle” has not reversed yet, says analyst

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV highlighted two key indicators shaping the current BTC positioning. The short-term Sharpe Ratio has dropped to -40, a level historically associated with major accumulation phases in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023.

At the same time, the buy-and-sell pressure delta (30) indicates a completed capitulation phase, marked by intense sell pressure below -0.05. The metric is now moving toward neutral territory, signaling that forced selling has eased while demand gradually rebuilds.

Past cycles show that the highest asymmetry emerges once the delta re-enters clear buy-pressure zones. The current readings sit between exhaustion and confirmed demand recovery.

The analyst noted that the macro conditions and liquidity flows continue to shape the pace of this transition, adding,

“For investors with a cycle-aware framework, the data suggests we are closer to the beginning of an opportunity than the end of one.”
Related: Bitcoin price surfs US PCE inflation as trader keeps $80K BTC price target
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:c455e8b2a094b:0-old-bitcoin-whales-sold-271m-in-btc-is-crypto-rally-at-stake/